陶福禄

中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所

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  • 陶福禄
  • 研究员

个人简况

43岁,博士,中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所研究员,博士生导师。 回国前在日本农业环境技术研究所和日本筑波大学任特别研究员。1999年于中国科学院生态环境研究中心获生态学专业博士学位。2001年获国际“START”青年科学家奖。已在国内外重要学术期刊发表论文100多篇,其中国际SCI核心期刊收录论文70篇。国际期刊European Journal Agronomy 和 Regional environmental change、《中国农业气象》等国内外学术期刊编委。

研究领域和研究方向:

主要研究领域为生态系统生态学、全球变化生态学和农林气象学。长期致力于农业系统对全球变化的响应和适应研究。围绕领域前沿科学和国家重大需求问题,从农业系统对过去气候变化的响应和适应机理、农业系统模型创建和未来气候变化影响预估和适应对策,到农业水土资源变化及粮食安全综合集成研究。

近期科研进展:

近年来,收集整理多源资料,建立了农业多要素多尺度长期历史数据库,发展了系列先进的理论方法和模型系统,在我国农业耕作系统、农业水资源和农业生产对季节气候变率和长期气候变化响应的事实、机制、规律及时空分异规律等方面有多项创新成果。针对困扰当前气候变化影响预测研究中的不确定性问题,发展了MCWLA系列作物模型和超集合概率预测的理论方法,研发了新一代气候变化影响评价工具“区域农业对气候变化响应和适应的超集合预测系统”,在大尺度作物模型的发展和气候变化影响评价研究的不确定问题上取得重要突破。系统开展全球变化、农业水土资源变化和粮食安全综合集成研究。目前已在国内外核心期刊发表论文100余篇,其中SCI核心期刊论文70篇。研究成果被《科学》杂志新闻焦点报道,被欧洲农学学会作为亮点报道,被IPCC评价报告多次引用和高度评价。

近期代表论著:

1. Tao et al., 2014. Responses of wheat growth and yield to climate change in different climate zones of China, 1981-2009. DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2014.01.013

2. Bassu S., et al., 2014. How do various maize crop models vary in their responses to climate change factors? Global change Bio. DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12520

3. Xiao D, Tao F*, 2014. Contributions of cultivars, management and climate change to winter wheat yield in the North China Plain in the past three decades. Eur. J. Agron. 52, 112-122

4. Tao, F., Zhang,Z., Shi,W. Liu,Y. Xiao,D., Zhang,S., Zhu,Z., Wang, M.,Liu F. Single rice growth period was prolonged by cultivars shifts but yield was damaged by climate change during 1981-2009 in China, and late rice was just opposite. Global Change Biology. 2013, 19, 3200–3209.

5. Asseng, S. et al., 2013. Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change. Nature Climate change. 3, 827–832

6. Zhang S., Tao F.* 2013. Modeling the response of rice phenology to climate change and variability in different climatic zones: Comparisons of five models. Eur. J. Agron. 45, 167–176

7. Tao, F., Zhang, S,Zhang Z. 2013. Changes in rice disasters across China in recent decades and the meteorological and agronomic causes. Regional Environmental Change, 13, 743–759.

8. Moiwo JP, Tao F.*, Lu Wenxi. 2013. Analysis of satellite-based and in situ hydro-climatic data depicts water storage depletion in North China Region. Hydrological Processes, 27, 1011-1020.

9. Tao F., Z Zhang. 2013. Climate Change, High Temperature Stress, Rice Productivity and Water Use in Eastern China: A New Super-ensemble-based Probabilistic Projection. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 2013, 52, 531–551.

10. Xiao D, Tao F.*, Liu Y, Shi W, et al., 2013. Observed changes in winter wheat phenology in the North China Plain for 1981-2009. International Journal of Biometeorology.57, 275-285.

11. Tao F., Z Zhang. 2013. Climate change, wheat productivity and water use in the North China Plain: A new super-ensemble-based probabilistic projection. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 170,146-166.

12. Zhang S, Tao F.*. 2013. Modeling the response of rice phenology to climate change and variability in different climatic zones: Comparisons of five models. European Journal of Agronomy, 45, 167-176.

13. Tao F., Zhang S, Zhang Z. 2012. Spatiotemporal changes of wheat phenology in China under the effects of temperature, day length and cultivar thermal characteristics. European Journal of Agronomy, 43, 201-212.

14. Tao, F., Zhang, Z., Zhang, S., Zhu, Z., & Shi, W. 2012. Response of crop yields to climate trends since 1980 in China. Climate Research, 54, 233-247.

15. Moiwo, J.P., Tao, F*., Liu. W. 2011. Estimating soil moisture storage change using quasi-terrestrial water balance method. Agricultural Water Management, 102, 25–34.

16. Tao F, Z. Zhang. 2011. Dynamic Response of Terrestrial Hydrological Cycle and Plant Water Stress to Climate Change in China. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 12, 371-393, doi: 10.1175/2010JHM1314.1

17. Tao, F, Z. Zhang. 2011. Impacts of climate change as a function of global mean temperature: maize productivity and water use in China. Climatic Change, 105,409-432, doi: 10.1007/s10584-010-9883-9. Online First?

18. Tao F, Z. Zhang, M. Yokozawa. 2011. Dangerous levels of climate change for agricultural production in China. Regional Environmental Change 11: S41–S48.

19. Tao F, Z. Zhang. 2010. Dynamic responses of terrestrial ecosystems structure and function to climate change in China. Journal of Geophysical Research, 115: G03003, doi:10.1029/2009JG001062.

20. Tao F, Z. Zhang. 2010. Adaptation of maize production to climate change in North China Plain: Quantify the relative contributions of adaptation options. European Journal of Agronomy, 33, 103-116.

21. Tao, F, Z. Zhang, J. Liu. 2009. Modeling the Impacts of Weather and Climate Variability on Crop Productivity over a Large Area: A New Super-ensemble-based Probabilistic Projection. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 149, 1266–127.

22. Tao, F, M. Yokozawa, Z. Zhang. 2009. Modeling the Impacts of Weather and Climate Variability on Crop Productivity over a Large Area: A New Process-based Model Development, Optimization, and Uncertainties Analysis. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 149, 831–850.

23. Tao, F, M. Yokozawa, J. Liu, Z. Zhang. 2009. Climate change, land use change, and China’s food security in the twenty-first century: an integrated perspective. Climatic Change, 93, 433–445.

24. Tao, F, Y. Hayashi, M. Yokozawa, Z. Zhang, T. Sakamoto. 2008. Global Warming, Rice Production and Water Use in China: Developing a Probabilistic Assessment. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 148, 94–110.

25. Tao, F, M. Yokozawa, J. Liu, Z. Zhang. 2008. Climate-crop yield relationships at province scale in China and the impacts of recent climate trend. Climate Research, 38, 83–94.